Singapore portfolio compounding +5.9% NPI on Airshow tailwind, capital stack re-rated to 2.8% cost of debt and 35.3% gearing — but Maldives -26.3% and Japan -10.3% mark where the real geopolitical risk has landed

CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) on Thursday 30 April 2026 reported its 1Q 2026 operational update (quarter ended 31 March 2026) with gross revenue of S$67.1 million, up 5.9% year-on-year, and net property income of S$33.1 million, up 10.4% year-on-year. RevPAR growth printed across all portfolio markets except Japan and the Maldives. Singapore Hotels delivered RevPAR of S$184 (+6.6% YoY) on occupancy of 80.4% (+5.4 percentage points), the Singapore portfolio NPI grew +5.9% to S$18.8 million on Airshow-driven citywide compression and corporate / MICE base demand, and Claymore Connect held committed occupancy at 97.7% with NPI +5.0% on annual rent escalation. Aggregate gearing stepped down from 37.7% at 31 December 2025 to 35.3% at 31 March 2026 following the February 2026 S$100 million perpetual securities issuance and retirement of higher-cost GBP/USD borrowings; weighted-average cost of debt fell to 2.8% from 3.0% and the proportion of fixed-rate debt rose to 66.9% from 56.0% on two new SGD interest-rate swaps totalling S$83.6 million. Assets under management stand at about S$3.5 billion across 22 properties in 11 cities and 8 countries — 4,924 hotel rooms, 352 Build-to-Rent apartments, 404 Purpose-Built Student Accommodation beds, and the Claymore Connect retail mall. The headline is a clean +10.4% NPI quarter; the structural read is a geopolitical-exposure rebalancing.

Gross Revenue S$67,120K (+5.9% YoY). NPI S$33,081K (+10.4% YoY). Singapore RevPAR S$184 (+6.6% YoY). Singapore Occupancy 80.4% (+5.4pp). Singapore NPI S$18,756K (+5.9% YoY). Maldives RevPAR US$430 (-6.4% YoY). Maldives NPI S$2,307K (-26.3% YoY). Japan RevPAR ¥10,666 (-4.2% YoY). Japan NPI S$991K (-10.3% YoY; -3.7% in local currency). New Zealand RevPAR NZ$186 (+16.3% YoY). New Zealand NPI S$2,473K (+46.1% YoY). Australia RevPAR A$149 (+12.9% YoY). Australia NPI S$1,557K (+151.9% YoY). UK Hotels RevPAR £104 (+5.4% YoY). UK Hotels NPI S$2,339K (-13.6% YoY). UK Living Assets NPI S$2,761K (+68.8% YoY) — BTR S$1,809K (+132.2% YoY) and PBSA S$952K (+11.1% YoY). Germany RevPAR €72 (+5.1% YoY). Germany NPI S$1,480K (+24.5% YoY). Italy RevPAR €143 (+29.4% YoY). Italy NPI S$417K (+127.9% YoY). The Castings physical occupancy 91.8% (vs 90.3% Dec-25, 67.9% Mar-25). Benson Yard committed occupancy AY2025/26 94.3%. Aggregate gearing 35.3% (vs 37.7% at 31 Dec 2025). Debt headroom to 50% gearing S$970M. Weighted-average cost of debt 2.8% (vs 3.0%). Fixed-rate share 66.9% (vs 56.0%). Interest coverage 2.4x. Cash and available facilities S$634.3M (incl. S$400M uncommitted bridge). Property value unencumbered 95.8%. Pro forma FY2025 net interest savings S$4.6M, pro forma FY2025 DPU accretion +3.1%. AUM ~S$3.5B.

Across the deck, management names the Middle East conflict explicitly as a portfolio risk — and 1Q 2026 is the first quarter where the route-suspension impact on Maldives connectivity prints as a hard NPI number. Maldives RevPAR was down -6.4% YoY in USD terms, but NPI fell -26.3% (S$3.1M to S$2.3M, a S$0.8M decline) because the revenue shortfall was amplified by the relatively fixed nature of resort operating costs. The cause was named: the US-Iran conflict caused multiple carriers to suspend or reduce Maldives services in March 2026, with Maldives March arrivals down -20.7% YoY. The Halcyon (rebranded from Raffles Maldives Meradhoo on 1 November 2025) was hit twice — its post-rebrand ramp-up phase was already constraining performance, and the carrier suspensions then layered on top in March. CDLHT also flagged that fixed-price energy contracts are not available in the Maldives, so the Trust cannot hedge utility-cost inflation the way it can in Singapore.

On a separate geopolitical axis, Japan NPI fell -10.3% YoY (only -3.7% in local currency, with the rest from JPY translation) on Chinese visitor arrivals to Japan -54.6% YoY YTD March 2026 — a function of ongoing China-Japan diplomatic tensions rather than the Middle East. JTB now forecasts -2.8% inbound for 2026 against the record 2025 base. The two geopolitical exposures are independent — different conflicts, different geographies, different transmission mechanisms — but both land in CDLHT's overseas hotel book at the same time.

🇸🇬 SINGAPORE — AIRSHOW + MICE COMPOUNDING, ENERGY LOCKED

Singapore Hotels NPI +5.9% YoY to S$17.1M on RevPAR S$184 (+6.6%), driven by occupancy lift (75.0% to 80.4%) rather than rate (S$231 to S$229, a -0.6% decline). The narrative is corporate and MICE base demand plus the biennial Singapore Airshow returning in February 2026 driving citywide compression. Claymore Connect held committed occupancy at 97.7% with NPI +5.0% on annual rent escalation. Crucially, CDLHT disclosed that Singapore Hotel energy tariffs are fixed through 2026 with materially lower rates locked in for 2027-2031 — providing operating-margin visibility through the medium term that very few hospitality REITs can match.

Visitor arrivals to Singapore YTD March 2026 hit 4.4 million (94.5% of pre-pandemic 2019 levels), with the Singapore Tourism Board guiding 17.0-18.0 million for 2026 against 16.9 million in 2025. The forward demand calendar carries the BTS four-night Singapore residency in December 2026 (the longest BTS run in Asia outside Korea and Japan), Asia Tech x Singapore in May 2026, Singapore International Water Week in June 2026, and the Resorts World Sentosa S$6.8 billion expansion targeting 2030. The Singapore book is in active reinvestment mode: M Hotel 415-room renovation commencing May 2026; Copthorne King's 167-room main-wing refurbishment under tender for 4Q 2026 commencement.

The Singapore strength was supported despite management noting that the Middle East conflict began to weigh on sentiment in March 2026, with some cancellations and demand moderation observed but no significant overall impact to date.

🌏 MALDIVES AND JAPAN — WHERE THE GEOPOLITICAL DRAG LANDED

Maldives early-quarter trading was supported by strong seasonal demand including the Lunar New Year peak before weakening sharply in March on the carrier suspensions. At the asset level, Angsana Velavaru recorded RevPAR growth of +1.7% YoY as strong early-year trading largely offset cancellations and postponements in March; The Halcyon performance continues to reflect the ramp-up phase following the November 2025 rebranding, compounded by the March disruption. Forward, operating conditions are expected to remain competitive as Maldives resort supply continues to grow against softening connectivity.

Japan NPI -10.3% YoY (S$1.1M to S$991K, a S$114K decline). In local currency terms, NPI fell -3.7% YoY — most of the reported decline reflects the weaker yen pass-through to SGD reporting. Performance was also measured against a high prior-year base when the Japan Hotels achieved record performance. Forward, CDLHT expects a softer Japan portfolio performance for 2026 reflecting the broader inbound-travel softness from the 54.6% YoY decline in Chinese visitor arrivals.

The Maldives exposure is the more concentrated risk for CDLHT. Hospitality REITs typically cannot hedge route-suspension events on long-haul leisure markets, and unlike Singapore, fixed-price energy contracts are not available in the Maldives — so utility-cost inflation passes through directly. Japan is structurally diversified at the demand-source level (recovery in arrivals from markets other than China can offset, and Japan's inbound is at multi-year highs even with the China decline) and CDLHT's Japan hotels operate at the budget end of the segment, which is more resilient to mix shifts.

🏗️ UK LIVING ASSETS — QUIETLY DOING THE STABILITY WORK

UK Living Assets NPI +68.8% YoY (S$1.6M to S$2.8M) was the standout segment-level move of the quarter. The Castings (Manchester BTR) physical occupancy reached 91.8% as of 31 March 2026 with NPI more than doubling YoY as the property exits its lease-up phase. The Castings occupancy progression is now fully in view: 59.1% (Dec-24) to 67.9% (Mar-25) to 74.4% (Jun-25) to 90.1% (Sep-25) to 90.3% (Dec-25) to 91.8% (Mar-26). A more stabilised NPI profile is expected from 2026 onwards as the property moves beyond the initial ramp-up phase. The Renters' Rights Act 2025 takes key tenancy-related effects from 1 May 2026, transitioning most fixed-term tenancies in England to no-fixed-end-date tenancies — CDLHT has been working with the operator to adapt tenancy frameworks; not expected to materially disrupt operations but reduces forward lease duration visibility.

Benson Yard (Liverpool PBSA) committed occupancy 94.3% for academic year 2025/26 as of 31 March 2026; calendar-period 1Q 2026 average occupancy 94.4%. NPI +11.1% YoY, driven by rent growth secured at the start of AY 2025/26 and lower utility costs following termination of an inherited utility contract replaced with more favourable terms from February 2025 onwards. Leasing for AY 2026/27 is underway.

Combined UK total NPI grew +17.5% YoY (S$0.8M increase). Critically, the UK Living Assets uplift more-than-offset UK Hotels NPI -13.6% YoY (driven by higher payroll costs and one-off prior-period business-rates adjustments, partially offset by The Lowry RevPAR +10.7% on football and BRIT Awards demand, voco Manchester fixed-lease income +5.2%, Hilton Cambridge +1.5%, Hotel Indigo Exeter +3.3%). The structural read on the segment level: CDLHT's UK BTR/PBSA pair is doing the income-stability work the trust acquired them to do. The hospitality book is cyclical; the living book is contractual. In a quarter where hotels in two geographies got hit by independent geopolitical events, the living assets did exactly what was advertised.

💰 CAPITAL STACK RE-RATED — 5.6% TO 2.8% BLENDED, GEARING 37.7% TO 35.3%

Two perpetual securities tranches retired higher-cost GBP/USD debt at a blended 5.6% cost: S$150M issued November 2025 at 3.7% per annum (perpetual non-call 5Y), and S$100M issued February 2026 at 4.0% per annum (perpetual non-call 5.5Y). The combined S$250M of perp issuance retired existing borrowings at a 5.6% blended cost, generating annualised net interest savings of S$4.6M and pro-forma FY2025 DPU accretion of 3.1%.

The capital management consequences are clean and visible. Weighted-average cost of debt 3.0% to 2.8%. Fixed-rate share of total debt 56.0% to 66.9% on two new SGD interest-rate swaps totalling S$83.6M. Aggregate gearing 37.7% to 35.3%, with S$970M debt headroom to the 50% MAS cap. ~S$634M of cash and available credit facilities (including the S$400M uncommitted bridge facility specifically structured for acquisition financing). 95.8% of property value unencumbered. Interest coverage ratio 2.4x. Debt currency mix 63.5% SGD, 17.8% EUR, 14.3% GBP, 4.4% JPY. Weighted average debt to maturity ~2.5 years. FY2026 maturities S$137M (11.7% of stack), so the refinancing exposure is modest.

The capital position is engineered specifically to fund the Moxy Singapore Clarke Quay forward purchase coming due across late 2026 and 1H 2027. Going forward, CDLHT expects to benefit from lower interest costs in FY2026 from the moderation in benchmark rates and the retirement of higher-cost borrowings, with selective asset recycling to optimise portfolio quality and fund future growth as opportunities arise.

🎯 MOXY SINGAPORE CLARKE QUAY — THE PIPELINE THAT DEEPENS SINGAPORE CONCENTRATION

CDLHT's forward purchase of the 475-key lifestyle hotel is structured at the lower of S$475M fixed price or 110% of development cost. Payment milestones: 5% on TOP (estimated end-2026), 90% on opening (estimated 1H 2027), remainder on end of defects-liability period and accounts finalisation (≥18 months from TOP). The acquisition grows Singapore room count from 2,555 to 3,030 (+19%) — strengthening CDLHT's foothold in one of Asia's most coveted hospitality markets and broadening exposure to the lifestyle segment in a prime riverside location.

The strategic logic is structural diversification within concentration. Adding more Singapore exposure looks like concentration on one reading; on another, it deepens exposure to the geographic book that is structurally insulated by the energy tariff lock-in, the MICE / events demand pipeline, and the visitor-arrivals recovery. The geopolitical drag elsewhere in CDLHT's portfolio makes Singapore concentration the diversification trade.

The Singapore room count is also entering a competitive supply window. Horwath HTL data shows ~3,319 hotel rooms expected to open between Mar 2026 and end-2028 (CAGR 1.6%) — 619 rooms in Apr-Dec 2026, 2,084 rooms in 2027, 616 rooms in 2028. The 2027 cohort is the most concentrated supply year and includes Mövenpick Singapore (808 keys, 1Q 2027), Avani Singapore (200 keys, 2Q 2027), NoMad Singapore (173 keys, early 2027), Casa Mett (165 keys, early 2027), Hotel at Central Square (71 keys, 2027), Moxy Singapore Clarke Quay (475 keys, 2027), and Somerset Clarke Quay (192 keys, 2027). 61% of incremental supply through end-2028 is upscale/luxury. Moxy enters as a mid-tier lifestyle product into a window where two-thirds of new supply is positioned above it — competitive but adjacent rather than direct-competing.

Singapore — does the Airshow / MICE / energy-tariff structural setup carry into 2Q-3Q 2026 once Airshow base effect rolls off, with the BTS December residency providing the 4Q catalyst.

Maldives — does carrier connectivity recover or does the route-suspension stick, and what does the cumulative ramp-up at The Halcyon look like once the disruption passes.

Japan-China inbound — 54.6% YoY decline in Chinese arrivals reversing or extending; CDLHT Japan portfolio is small (S$85.1M / 2.5% of portfolio value) so the read-through to overall NPI is contained but the geopolitical signal is broader.

Grand Millennium Auckland — NZICC opening February 2026, City Rail Link station opening 2H 2026, NZeTA visa-free trial for Chinese visitors from Australia (3 November 2025 onwards) — three medium-term catalysts in a market where 1Q 2026 NPI was already +46.1% YoY post-renovation.

Moxy Singapore Clarke Quay TOP — end-2026 estimated, the 5% milestone payment triggers and confirms the forward-purchase economics. The 1H 2027 opening is the larger 90% payment.

Own CDLHT for the Singapore portfolio strength funding the geographic drag elsewhere, the cleanest balance-sheet position the trust has carried in years, and the Moxy Clarke Quay forward purchase landing into a Singapore room base that the tariff-locked energy contract and Airshow / BTS demand calendar are positioned to fill. The structural hedge from UK Living Assets is now visible in the segment numbers (+68.8% NPI) rather than just promised, and the Castings occupancy curve has decisively crossed 90% with a path to fully stabilised NPI from 2026 onwards. The watch-this is the Maldives — concentrated geopolitical exposure where neither hedging nor energy tariffs can do the work the Singapore book gets for free, and where the carrier-suspension transmission mechanism is structurally hard for a hospitality REIT to defend against. The investment case is not whether the Singapore book is strong (it clearly is) — it is whether the Singapore strength compounds fast enough to absorb the Maldives drag through the Middle East conflict resolution, while the capital stack carries the Moxy commitment into 1H 2027.